Tesla Sales Drop for First Time in Over a Decade While China’s BYD Rises

Teslas might be blowing up, but sales aren’t. Elon Musk’s car company released its annual sales figures for 2024, revealing that it delivered 1.79 million—just under the 1.8 million that the company shipped out in 2023. It’s the first time in over a decade that the company experienced a drop in car sales despite discounted prices, massive hype-driven events, and the wider availability of the Cybertruck.

The slacking sales figures for the year, which fell short of analyst estimates, come despite a mad dash to make up for lost time in the fourth quarter. From October to December, Tesla delivered 495,570 vehicles—a figure driven in part by the company offering up any incentive it could find to entice prospective car buyers. You want 0% financing? You got it. Three months of free access to “Full Self-Driving” and Supercharging? Done. Super cheap leases? Sure. And yet, sales fell short—and now the stock is dropping, too.

Typically, when you know you’re going to miss investor markers, you try to temper expectations for the future until you can build back up. But Musk has already laid the groundwork for exponential growth. Back in October, Tesla’s CEO told investors that he expects sales to increase by as much as 30% in 2025.

It’d be fair to call that claim dubious, especially considering the company just fell short of its sales goals in a year where the market conditions are far more favorable than they will be soon. Musk’s pal Donald Trump seems set on killing off the Biden-era electric vehicle tax credit, which was credited with juicing EV sales over the last few years. Even places that intend to maintain a credit to incentivize car buyers to go electric, like California, are now considering excluding Teslas from eligibility.

Globally, the market is about to get much more complicated for Tesla to compete in, as well. While the company hit a record high for car sales in China last month, it’s also getting its lunch eaten on the global stage by Chinese firm BYD. The company sold 4.25 million cars this year and is now threatening to overtake Tesla as the most popular EV in China.

There does not appear to be an obvious savior on the horizon for Tesla, either. The Cybertruck remains the company’s most identifiable vehicle thanks to its futuristic dumpster vibe, but the company shipped fewer than 50,000 units in 2024 and it seems like the demand for the truck is flattening out or declining.

Maybe Trump’s plan to loosen federal regulations on self-driving vehicles will lead to a massive run on Tesla’s promised “Cybercab,” a two-seat autonomous car (that might actually be controlled remotely by humans) that Musk claims will cost under $30,000 and will litter the roads in two to three years. But given the company’s challenges in ramping up production on anything, it’d be hard to imagine it could meet demand even if it presented an opportunity to turn around the sales chart.